미국의 새로운 국권 기금: 워싱턴이 하락세를 사면 누가 승리합니까?

America’s New Sovereign Fund: Who Wins When Washington Buys the Dip THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts America’s New Sovereign Fund: Who Wins When Washington Buys the Dip America’s New Sovereign Fund: Who Wins When Washington Buys the Dip Oct 27, 2025 I’ve been a trader and investor for 44 years. I left Wall Street long ago—-once I understood that their obsolete advice is designed to profit them, not you. Today, my firm manages around $5 billion in ETFs, and I don’t answer to anybody. I tell the truth because trying to fool investors doesn’t help them, or me. In Daily --- H.E.A.T. , I show you how to Hedge against disaster, find your Edge, exploit Asymmetric opportunities, and ride major Themes before Wall Street catches on. Table of Contents Announcements-BITK Dividend Payable Today --- H.E.A.T.--America’s New Sovereign Fund: Who Wins When Washington Buys the Dip What’s Moving Markets: News vs. Noise Stock of the Day Announcements Speaking of BITK, had a great conversation with Cash on all things covered call and option income….. — # (# ) --- H.E.A.T. America’s New Sovereign Fund: Who Wins When Washington Buys the Dip Washington has crossed the Rubicon from subsidizer to shareholder. In the name of national security and supply-chain resilience, the U.S. is taking equity, warrants, golden shares, and revenue participation in strategically important companies—Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, Trilogy Metals—with bipartisan cover and an explicit goal of both de-risking capacity and earning a taxpayer return. This is state capitalism, American-style: push legal boundaries, compress cost of capital for “critical” sectors, and use permits, contracts, and procurement to steer outcomes. The market implication is a durable valuation bifurcation—policy-advantaged balance sheets on one side, policy-orphaned issuers on the other. What’s really changing Equity replaces pure grants in select deals; milestones are sometimes relaxed in exchange for ownership; offtake, price floors, and “find a buyer” clauses socialize demand risk; golden shares and vetoes embed policy preferences in corporate decisions (U.S. Steel precedent). The signal effect is as important as the cash: a U.S. stake crowds in private capital, accelerates permitting, and raises rivals’ hurdle rates. Expect copycat pitches from any sector the White House deems “critical” (semis, magnets/rare earths, battery materials, transmission/grid gear, select defense platforms, AI compute and cooling, heavy industry with security linkages). Winners • U.S. and allied strategic materials with shovel-ready projects and offtake pathways: MP, LAC, TMQ; magnet and midstream processors positioned for guaranteed volumes and price floors; specialty steel and critical alloys tied to defense. • Domestic semiconductor capacity with credible yields and advanced packaging: INTC (already capitalized), OSAT and substrate providers leveraged to onshoring, equipment vendors with U.S. fab exposure. INTC is interesting…. They’ve been on fire ever since Trump’s announcement and they had decent earnings for a change. I was talking to a reporter from Bloomberg about INTC on Friday. It’s the only Trump trade I really don’t like from a thematic standpoint, but am perfectly willing to ride the momentum. For more of my thoughts on semis… — # (# ) • Defense primes and dual-use suppliers likely to receive equity, guarantees, or golden-share oversight in exchange for capacity/security commitments: LMT, NOC, GD, BWXT. • Grid and power infrastructure makers where AI load meets industrial policy: ETN, PWR, ABB, SIEGY; regulated utilities that can tie new rate base to “national resilience.” • Event-driven small/mid caps that win equity-linked awards or DFC support—first pop on announcement, second leg on execution and offtake. Losers • Import-dependent competitors to policy-backed firms; projects relying on Chinese midstream/refining that now face permitting headwinds or explicit restrictions. • Shareholders in strategic targets who ignore dilution math or underestimate golden-share constraints on capital allocation. • Policy-orphaned energy/industrial names with no national-security angle—higher relative cost of capital and slower permits. • Multinationals caught between regimes (export controls, forced localization, revenue-share demands) that compress returns on China-exposed lines. Key risks • Politicization and governance creep: vetoes, location mandates, hiring/production directives that misallocate capital or slow restructuring. • Moral hazard and crowd-out: private investors defer until Uncle Sam prices the round; weaker projects get pulled forward. • Retaliation and supply shocks from China in minerals, magnets, and components; litigation over equal-treatment or procurement rules even if formal consent blunts lawsuits. • Execution discipline: price floors and offtake can backfire if demand underperforms; taxpayers absorb tail risk. Likely scenarios Managed industrial policy, narrow aperture: Stakes remain targeted; equity is paired with enforceable offtake and performance gates; “policy spread” persists—back the beneficiaries. Broadening toolkit, heavier hand: Golden shares and revenue-shares proliferate; more sectors become “critical”; valuation premia widen but operating freedom shrinks—favor firms with strong governance that can live under oversight. Policy whiplash or overreach: A high-profile miss triggers backlash; aperture tightens; announcement premia fade—own resilient cash generators and avoid story-only names counting on federal equity. How to invest now • Build a “policy-advantaged” sleeve: MP, LAC (execution risk sized), INTC (onshoring optionality), BWXT (nuclear/defense), ETN/PWR (grid), selective regulated utilities with clear federal tie-ins. • Run an event-driven book: track DFC/DoD/Treasury/Commerce pipelines; trade the announcement pop but keep a core only where offtake/price floors are disclosed and funding is sequenced. • Pair trades: long policy-backed materials vs. import-reliant peers; long grid OEMs vs. pure-play renewables awaiting permits; long defense primes vs. commoditized suppliers. • Risk management: haircut multiples for golden-share names; require covenant-like disclosures (collateral, minimum bills, take-or-pay) before paying up; assume China retaliation scenarios in base cases. Bottom line America just created a de facto sovereign co-investor for national-security supply chains. That lowers financing friction for the chosen—and quietly raises it for everyone else. The edge is to identify where federal equity, guarantees, and offtake convert political intent into durable cash flows, then size around governance risk. In this regime, policy isn’t a headline—it’s a factor. What’s Moving Markets: News vs. Noise As bad as the market looked the other day, it looked great Friday. CPI came in a bit light and market’s gapped to new highs. The noise now is that market’s are at all time highs and all is well with the world again. There is a lot of news this week. Ton’s of earnings and data this week. We have FOMC Wednesday, most of the Mag 7 reporting earnings, and Trump and Xi are expected to meet (Bessent and the Vice Premier have created a deal framework). It’s also possible we get PCE Friday, but with the shutdown who knows. I think it would be prudent to add hedges, if you don’t have them already, or ramp them up a bit if you do. Not saying the market is going to sell off, just saying that at all time highs and with a ton of data ahead, you have a market that’s priced for perfection. Could we see Powell waffle on future cuts? Could Mag 7 names provide caution on AI capex? Will Trump TACO with China? Lots of uncertainty. Part of the China framework involves them delaying rare earth restrictions for a year. Rare earth stocks are selling off on this so far today. I have to think this presents a buying opportunity at some point here. Keep an eye on Argentina today on this…. Milei Wins Mandate for Free-Market Revolution in Argentina’s Election-WSJ My YPF position is up 22% pre market. Once things settle out it may be time to add some more Argentine names. Stock of the Day Today’s stock is Galaxy Digital (GLXY)…… It had a pocket pivot the other day, and then an undercut and rally at the 10 day EMA. GLXY is knee deep in crypto but has also repurposed a mining facility into one of the largest AI data centers. It’s one of the few public companies bridging those two high conviction themes. Full disclosure, we do run a 2x GLXY ETF. All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0