AI Capex가 GDP를 뒷받침합니다.다음에 일어날 일과 투자 방법

AI Capex Is Propping Up GDP. What Happens Next—and How to Invest It THE DAILY --- H.E.A.T. Torching Wall Street’s Obsolete Playbook. Delivered straight to your inbox 5 days a week. Subscribe Home Posts AI Capex Is Propping Up GDP. What Happens Next—and How to Invest It AI Capex Is Propping Up GDP. What Happens Next—and How to Invest It Aug 22, 2025 Wall Street’s 60/40 formula was born in 1952 — the same year as the first credit card. A lot has changed since. That’s why we created a new approach — The --- H.E.A.T. Formula — to empower investors to spot opportunities, think independently, make smarter (often contrarian) moves, and build real wealth. Table of Contents 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now 🧠 AI Capex Is Propping Up GDP. What Happens Next— … The Investment Strategy Wall Street Hopes You Neve … 📈 Stock Corner 📬 --- In Case You Missed It 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help 🔥 Here’s What’s Happening Now Bullish or bearish? — # (# ) Today is Jackson Hole. Goldman wrote a piece yesterday entitled “A Case For Cutting But No Definitive Signal”. That’s my biggest fear for the market here, everyone is expecting a September cut is a certainty. If Powell suggests it may not be that could be a big problem for the market. Odds for a September rate cut are now at 75%, down from a near certainty last week. Meanwhile, as we head into NVDA earnings next week I can’t help but think the news that the Chinese government is advising companies against purchasing their chips is a big deal. We will see next week. Remember, crypto is more than just Bitcoin. I believe you should own both Ethereum and Bitcoin, and I continue to hear more and more crypto people talking about Ethereum….. Peter Thiel Leads Pack of Investors Piling Into Ether Proponents see Ethereum becoming the platform of choice for the financial world www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/peter-thiel-ether-investors-39b37a98?mod=finance_lead_story Meanwhile, Bitcoin looks like a short here, while Ethereum does not…… — # (# ) We had Larry Tentarelli on the show yesterday to talk markets. Larry is a trend follower, but unlike a lot of guys who just randomly buy breakouts and end up with a volatile portfolio of meme stocks, he has a much better process IMHO…. 🧠 AI Capex Is Propping Up GDP. What Happens Next—and How to Invest It The critical detail that could unravel the AI trade: Nobody is paying for it. As Big Tech companies spend billions on AI buildout, their ability to generate cash is starting to take a hit www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-critical-detail-that-could-unravel-the-ai-trade-nobody-is-paying-for-it-be09e253?mod=home_lead AI infrastructure spend has become a top-five macro driver. By most credible tallies it added ~ 0.5% to U.S. GDP in 1H25 , and since Nov-2022 data-center investment is up ~27% . In several recent quarters, AI capex prevented visibly weaker headline growth. That’s the good news. The uncomfortable truth: the economic multiplier is front-loaded (construction, equipment, power gear), but profits are back-loaded (utilization, unit economics, workflow ROI). If profits don’t materialize quickly enough, the financial accelerator runs in reverse: equity drawdowns → tighter budgets → capex slowdown → a negative macro impulse. The question isn’t “AI or no AI.” It’s which parts of the stack get paid if capex continues , who makes AI profitable , and who gets hit first if the tide recedes . Below is the map—and the portfolio to match it. • 1) Why AI capex has such a big macro punch GDP mechanics: Investment (I) enters GDP directly. Every incremental rack, transformer, chiller, and PPA dollar shows up immediately; the revenue benefits arrive later via productivity and new services. High “visible” multipliers: Construction wages, electrical equipment, land/power tie-ins, and utility rate base growth ripple through local economies in TX/OH/GA/LA, etc. Low immediate profit conversion: Training is CapEx-heavy; inference economics and workflow embedding (where the profit lives) lag by 12–24 months. Implication: The macro looks good as long as spend persists . Profit skepticism does not kill GDP tomorrow—it kills next year’s budgets . • 2) Can this keep going? Think in constraints —who can still fund it, and what bottlenecks bind first. Funding capacity: The hyperscalers (MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN) run $100B+ FCF engines . They can sustain a 12–24 month surge even with thin near-term ROI, particularly if investors keep rewarding revenue growth and product surface expansion (Copilot, Gemini, Bedrock). Physical bottlenecks: Power & grid : HVDC, transformer lead times, interconnect queues, and dispatchable clean power (nuclear/gas hybrids). White-space : switchgear, busway, chillers, liquid cooling. Talent & permitting : siting/local opposition (VA), EPC capacity. Economic bottlenecks: GPU utilization and cost/token for inference. If these improve, budgets recycle; if not, CFOs rationalize. Baseline view (next 12–18 months): Capex continues , but shifts toward power + grid + interconnect and inference efficiency . The Street will increasingly reward utilization & cash conversion over raw capex prints. • 3) Scenarios (12–24 months) Scenario Probability What it looks like Portfolio stance A) “Carry On” – Spend persists, profits lag 45–55% Hyperscaler capex steady; power/grid becomes gating; utilization inches higher Own enablers (power/thermal/electrical), DC REIT interconnect; barbell with util-cutters (PLTR/SNOW) B) “Productivity Clicks” – Inference ROI shows up 25–35% Cost/token falls; agentic AI drives workflow wins; cloud GM stabilizes Keep enablers but add profit-makers (utilization software, data plumbing), overweight app-layer C) “Capex Flinch” – Sentiment turns, budgets slip 15–25% Overbuild risk surfaces; GPU pricing softens; optics/integrators compress Defensive tilt : regulated utilities with PPAs; underweight optics/integrators; pairs/hedges on high-beta AI baskets Trip wires to watch: GPU utilization disclosures, cloud gross-margin commentary, PPA announcements, transformer lead times, and any slowdown in non-commenced leases. • 4) Winners and losers First-order winners (paid whether or not AI is profitable) Compute/network silicon: $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, $MRVL Network fabrics: $ANET Server integration (volume-sensitive): $DELL, $HPE (watch margins) , $SMCI (most reflexive) Optics & power components: $COHR, $LITE, $AAOI, $MPWR, $ON Power/thermal/electrical: $VRT, $MOD, $ETN, $HUBB, $POWL Grid build-out: $PWR, $MYRG, $ABB, $ENR, $GEV Energy & PPAs: $CEG, $VST, $NRG, $TLN ; regulated $ETR, $WEC, $CNP, $PPL, $OGE Interconnect & colo: $EQIX, $DLR Companies integral to making AI profitable (the re-rating cohort) Utilization/orchestration: $PLTR, $SNOW , $DDOG (observability) Inference efficiency: $NVDA (TensorRT/NIM), $ARM , $ANET (deterministic fabrics) Data efficiency: $MDB, $ESTC (vector/RAG) App layer that monetizes workflows: $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN Likely losers if profits stay elusive / if capex flinches “Me-too” foundation-model hosts with no moat or distribution. Over-levered DC developers/EPCs without power or disciplined execution. Hardware-only integrators if GPU supply loosens (watch $SMCI GM%). Single-market DC REITs in permitting-hostile jurisdictions (parts of VA). • 5) How this changes investing From AI-beta to “cash-flow stack.” The right way to own AI now is to map the cash-flow chain —who gets dollars today (enablers) vs. who earns re-rating tomorrow (profit-makers). Power is an asset class. Long-dated nuclear/gas PPAs will trade like gold ; utilities/IPPs with secured fuel and interconnects deserve a higher multiple. Measure what matters. Shift from “capex headlines” to utilization, cost/token, cloud GM, interconnect ARPU, non-commenced lease burn-down , and transformer lead times . Barbell over binary. Own enablers + profit-makers ; use pairs to neutralize beta (e.g., long $ETN/$VRT/$CEG vs. short a basket of non-profitable AI platforms). • 6) The portfolio playbook ( --- H.E.A.T. framing) Themes: “AI-Powered Grid Buildout” + “Utilization & Inference Economics” Core (durable cash flows): $ETN, $VRT, $HUBB, $POWL, $CEG, $VST, $NRG, $EQIX, $DLR Add $NVDA/$AVGO/$ANET to anchor compute/network leadership. Profit-maker sleeve (re-rating optionality): $PLTR, $SNOW, $DDOG, $MDB, $ESTC, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN Hedges / pairs: Long $ETN/$CEG vs. short a basket of unprofitable AI apps Protective put spreads on high-beta AI integrators (or ratio put spreads into macro risk windows) Utilities/IPPs as macro shock absorbers if capex sentiment sours • 7) What would change our mind? Evidence of productivity: sustained improvement in inference margin/user , GPU utilization , and cloud GM —that’s Scenario B (re-rating). Funding exhaustion: equity underperformance + tighter credit → deferred projects (Scenario C). Policy breaks: meaningful interconnect reform or federal support for HVDC could extend the cycle even without immediate profits. Bottom line If the AI tide keeps coming in, the picks-and-shovels win on cash flow— power, racks, cooling, chips, optics, and interconnect . The next leg of returns belongs to those that make AI profitable —lowering cost per token, raising utilization, and wiring agents into revenue workflows. Own both sides: the builders and the profit-makers —and keep a hedge on the levered middle of the stack. 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It has seen some bullish options flow and had an undercut and rally at the 200 day MA. 📬 --- In Case You Missed It — # (# ) 🤝 Before You Go Some Ways I Can Help ETFs : The Antidote to Wall Street Inside HEAT: Our Monthly Live Call on What Wall Street Doesn’t Want You To Know Financial HEAT Podcast https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap Freedom from the Wall Street Hypocrisy Tuttle Wealth Management: Your Wealth Unshackled Advanced HEAT Insights: Matt’s Inner Circle, Your Financial Edge All rights reserved. Keep Reading No posts found View more caret-right 0